Trump, Bachman, Huckabee rush out as early spoilers. They incite the base of the Republican party with anti-Obama rhetoric and the birther issue. Palin, Huckabee and Trump may not run leaving the Tea Party plank wide open for Bachman. PALIN WILL NOT RUN - Unions and Democratic base will show up at every rally, as they did in Wisconsin this week, and boo her off the stage. Her one time supporters will move to Bachman and/or Huckabee. The Republican establishment and the Karl Rove machine become increasingly frantic.
IOWA goes to Bachman or Huckabee. They play up religious themes (gay marriage, abortion) and birtherism. Trump does surprisingly well for a well known libertine. His "star" appeal and his newfound admiration for "birthers" will play well in Iowa. Romney and Pawlenty are ghosts. Paul gets his standard showing, nabbing any young Republicans who vote in the primaries.
NEVADA goes to Trump if he runs - he sucks all the air out of Las Vegas and plays well with Hispanics due to his fairly liberal past on immigration. If Trump doesn't run, Romney and Pawlenty have a shot. Romney will win if Trump doesn't run. Even Mormons like to gamble sometimes, and Nevada has a lot of Mormons living there.
NEW HAMPSHIRE is Romney's last hope of a candidacy. Look for him to put all his money here and do well or even win. Bachman (or Huckabee) begin to fade. Trump once again is the wild card - if he stays in - he will place or show ahead of Bachman/Huckabee in the horse race but not likely win. Pawlenty comes in a distant third or fourth and commits seppuku for the sake of the GOP.
SOUTH CAROLINA likely goes to Romney by default. Bachman/Huckabee finally lose steam asthe Tea Party plank finally takes a hard look at their polling against Obama. Paul could stage a surprising showing here as the last hope of the most desperate Tea Party groups.
Result of January primaries - FIASCO! Romney cannot convincingly argue against Obamacare and he will have to say some harsh things against the Tea Party folk in order to gain ground with independents. Bruised and battered from a three ring circus of January primaries - Romney looks like he may just be able to win the nomination.
Rove tells Republican power brokers that he cannot come up with a winning scenario for Romney no matter how the polls are sliced and diced. Romney will do better than Obama with religious conservatives, creationists, right wing white groups and Wall Street. But he will take only a tiny percentage of Blacks, Hispanics, and independents. Of course he will not get ANY support from unions and the liberal base who will flee from the "nasty milliionaire businessman" to Obama's welcoming arms.
The alarm will be raised (phones probably already are ringing) among the the Republican big donor community. Blue Blood Republicans will hold secret meetings at Point Vesuvius (aka Walker's Point, aka the Bush Compound in Maine). Koch brothers have a seat at the table as does Wall Street led by a contingent of Goldman Sachs alumni. The goal - launch a volcanic barrage to reinstate the Bush royalty.
While it is true that George II tarnished the Bush family image, Bush remains a gold standard Coat of Arms among Republican oligarchs. Remember that Obama awarded the Freedom Medal to George I in February. This will help Rove, backed by Koch and Sachs money among others, to remind the public that George I is still KING of the Bush clan. George I will help take back the crown from his wayward son George II and pass it on to Jeb, thus assuring the continued hegemony of the Reagan-Bush trickle down/supply side wing of the Republican Party.
Jeb and Romney will be called to a "come to Jesus" summit. Romney will be told that Jeb represents the better hope for defeating Obama because:
- He has an amiable style, that wears well with independents. It is hard not to like him as a person.
- He is VERY Catholic, Fourth Degree Knight of Columbus, which will keep the Christian Right more firmly in line than someone who is a Mormon.
- He is married to a Hispanic, and has very good numbers with them (being Catholic doesn't hurt).
- He OWNS FLORIDA, especially the Cuban population which OWNS Miami Dade, a key democratic stronghold. Jeb has worked for a multimillionaire Cuban real estate firm.
- He has always been a strong supporter of Israel and is well liked in the Jewish community.
- His father and the Rove machine have enough dirt on every member of the Republican leadership (including new Tea Party leaders) to keep them firmly in line.
Romney will be asked to continue in the primaries to make sure Bachman/Huckabee/Trump remain dead and that no one else like Rand Paul is taken too seriously. Jeb will begin to be casually mentioned by the media as an alternative. Jeb's "stealth campaign" may start as early as late summer or fall of 2011. He will refuse comment and remain out of the public eye at least until the really big primaries in Texas and Florida. It's interesting that no primary date has been set for Florida and that many states are still discussing the dates. Perhaps it is normal to be 8 months away from the first primary without knowing the timing of all caucuses. Or perhaps Republicans are leaving themselves some wiggle room for a last minute candidacy by Jeb or someone like him. Here's the current schedule:
Rumors will be started (perhaps even using clips from the Oliver Stone movie "W") that Jeb was the first pick for the successor to the Reagan-Bush crown. They will say things like, "George II jumped the gun. Now it is time to put things right. The nation is in great peril - time to return to the first draft pick."
The pitch will be simple.
"Don't you want to return to the good old days of the Regan-Bush years? A time when Republicans were truly Republicans? George I was right there with Ronald. True, George II may have been a little bit of a disappointment, but look at has happened since he left. Didn't things get even worse? Isn't it time to return leadership to a True Republican like Jeb Bush? Socially conservative but not a fanatic, and fiscally conservative - his friends own the companies that can "drill baby drill" and he is comes from a financially elite family of "job creators" who were there when "trickle down" economics first began to drip.
I think Jeb could give Obama fits. Sooner or later Rove and company will figure this out as well. They probably already have. Rove has already begun trashing Trump. Rove, and the power brokers of the Grand Old Party, support none of the current contenders. Yet they have not offered alternative. Why?
Is it because it is too early to bring Jeb in? That they have to wait until rank and file Republicans get sick of the current Tea Party darlings? Are they waiting to launch a late campaign for Jeb or even have him emerge as a last minute superman at the convention?
Who knows the answer? Certainly not me. After all, I am a nut case. I have the papers to prove it.